Q2 2025 Newsletter
Elliott Vaughn • April 9, 2025

“This Time Is Different”… Again



Every so often, something surfaces that rattles investors’ and our financial news media confidence. A crisis, a conflict, a change in policy. It almost always arrives wrapped in the same seductive phrase: “This time it’s different.”


We heard it in 2016 with Brexit.


In 2018, it was trade war rhetoric—culminating in a Christmas Eve when the market was down 25%.


In early 2020, we endured the swiftest 30% market decline in history—followed almost immediately by the fastest recovery ever recorded.


Then came 2022, with the highest inflation in 40 years and the most aggressive interest rate hikes since the 1980s.


And now, in 2025, tariffs have once again taken center stage—evoking comparisons to the protectionist policies of the 1930s, and even further back to President McKinley’s platform of the 1890s.


So here we are again. Different headlines. Same Reaction


Let’s remind ourselves: Wall Street—and the companies it represents—do not care who the president is. Markets have advanced under Democrats and Republicans, through wars, scandals, crises, and recoveries. What matters most is not who sits in the White House, but whether you remain seated in your financial plan.


If we’ve learned anything from the past century of market history, it’s this: circumstances change, but average investor behavior stays the same. Panic. Recovery. Growth. Repeat. 


Now—and this is essential—the enduring 10%+ average annual return of the equity market and its frequent, temporary declines are not two unrelated phenomena. They are part of one indivisible whole. The volatility is not just normal; it is necessary. It is the emotional toll we pay for participating in the long-term wealth-creating miracle of capitalism.


Please understand: I do not believe you are the average investor. What I am saying is this: volatility is part of the journey. We planned for it, it's been part of every client review I have conducted. We expect it.


A Case in Point: April 7th


On April 7th, the market opened down 2%. Then, on the strength of a rumor—a potential 90-day delay in newly announced tariffs—the market surged 8%. Moments later, when the rumor was denied, the gains disappeared just as quickly. Nearly $2.4 trillion in market value evaporated in the space of a few hours, all driven by speculation.


I mentioned in our April 3rd email to clients "Market recoveries often happen swiftly, and missing just a handful of the best days can significantly reduce long-term returns" And then, as if to underline the point: on April 9th, the 90 day delay was officially confirmed. The market responded with another sudden move—this time up 9%—even as long-term questions about trade policy remained unresolved.


This is not investing. This is emotional voting, fueled by headlines and hearsay. This is what markets do in the short term—they fluctuate, sometimes violently, based on narrative and noise.


But over time, markets stop voting and start weighing. They weigh earnings, innovation, productivity, and progress. And those who remain invested in that process—not just through the quiet stretches, but through the storms—are the ones who capture the long-term rewards.

The market’s premium return has always been the compensation for enduring this volatility. The declines are not just inevitable—they are indispensable. You cannot have one without the other. (Just look at the S&P 500’s intra-year declines compared to its annual returns graph below.)

So no, we will not attempt to time the market. We will not allow momentary fear to dictate lifelong decisions. We will stay the course—because every time we have done so in the past, we’ve been rewarded with what this journey is ultimately about: peace of mind, prosperity, and progress.


Taxes, Taxes and you guessed it... Taxes!


One of the most significant tax laws in recent history—the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)—is set to expire at the end of 2025. This means that, barring new legislation, many of the tax benefits individuals and families have enjoyed since 2018 will disappear, and higher tax rates will return.

If nothing changes, income tax brackets are set to rise, the standard deduction will shrink, and key deductions will be altered. In short, many Americans will see their tax bills increase. The question isn’t if taxes are going up—it’s by how much.


What This Means for You


For those in higher tax brackets, this could mean thousands of dollars in additional taxes owed each year. Business owners, retirees, and high-income earners may be particularly affected by the reversal of lower rates and deductions. Estate tax exemptions are also scheduled to be cut in half, making proactive planning even more essential.

While tax laws are always subject to change, waiting until the last minute is not a strategy. Now is the time to take a proactive approach and assess how these changes could impact your financial future.


What You Should Do Now


The first step is to understand your current tax situation. Please send us a copy of your most recent tax return so we can evaluate how these changes may affect you and identify strategies to mitigate the impact. You can send it to us via our website https://www.theharborwealth.com/clients -> send us a document, send it via email to Ellen, ellenv@harborw.com , or request a FedEx envelope to send us a physical copy.


Whether it’s accelerating income, making strategic Roth conversions, or revisiting estate planning, there are steps you can take now to prepare for the future.


Our Client Relationship Manager, Ellen, Is in the process of becoming notary!
Give us a call and we'll happily notarize what you need!

Mark Your calendar!


  1. Elliott will be having a webinar with Collen Ceh Becvar, Owner of Trinity Advocacy Group and Gernotologist In June. The discussion will focus on how to plan for care as we age, how to find care, what the best kind of planning entails and when to start. Their website is https://trinityadvocacygroup.com
    Please submit any questions to hello@harborw.com beforehand!

  2. Shred Event and Food truck on August 12!


We hope everyone has a great start to the spring!


Graham is excited for warm weather!.

By Elliott Vaughn July 16, 2025
The Big Beautiful Bill ACT – A Tax Perspective President Trump has signed into law what’s being called the “ Big Beautiful Bill ”—a sweeping piece of tax legislation that touches everything from income brackets and deductions to estate taxes and energy credits. Whenever Washington rewrites the tax code, the media machine kicks into high gear. Cable news fills with shouting heads. The internet lights up. People begin to wonder: Does this change everything for me? The short answer is: probably not. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pay attention. We’re not here to weigh in on whether this is a good bill or a bad one. We’ll leave that to the talking heads. Our job is to help you understand how the key parts of this could affect your personal financial plan—whether you’re still earning, already retired, or planning to leave a legacy. Take a look at our cheat sheet HERE for a breakdown of the key provisions (Big thanks to Toren Tuttle, MBA, CPA, and the team at Retirement Tax Services for their insight as I put this together) But here’s what’s in the bill, in plain English. The Headlines This bill locks in many of the 2017 tax cuts: Income tax brackets remain lower The standard deduction is expanded Business owners retain access to the Qualified Business Income deduction The estate tax exemption rises to $15 million in 2026 The SALT deduction cap temporarily increases, though it’s scheduled to shrink again in 2030 In addition, the bill introduces several new deductions—for seniors, parents, tipped workers, and even car loan interest. Charitable giving rules have also changed: starting in 2026, you can deduct up to $1,000 ($2,000 if married), even if you don’t itemize. Some provisions are going away. Electric vehicle and energy-efficiency tax credits will phase out. The 1099-K reporting threshold for apps like Venmo and PayPal will return to $20,000 and 200 transactions. Gambling loss deductions are being limited. We’ve summarized all of these changes in the cheat sheet. Again, it’s worth keeping handy. The Perspective Here’s what really matters: tax law changes. Planning endures. When tax policy shifts—as it always does—our job is not to react or guess. Our job is to help you make smart, timely decisions within the framework of a long-term plan. We’ve seen this before. In 2001, 2003, 2010, 2017—and now, 2025. The tax code gets rewritten. Markets continue doing what they’ve always done. The political winds change. But your financial plan is built to withstand all of it—if it’s grounded in discipline and purpose. We’ll walk through all of this in more detail at our August Client Townhall. But know this: There is no rush. The ink is barely dry. And as always, we’ll sort through it together. Bottom Line Most of these changes either lock in current tax cuts or introduce new, targeted deductions—especially for seniors and middle-income earners. But many of the new benefits are temporary. So whether you’re still working or already retired, smart tax planning will matter more than ever. What You Should Do Now? Nothing—just yet. But, we’ll help you: Take advantage of temporary deductions before they disappear Maximize charitable giving in tax-smart ways Revisit Roth conversion strategies Coordinate with your CPA to fine-tune your tax plan Update your estate plan while exemptions remain high No panic. No politics. Just planning. We'll be discussing the new Tax Law in our next Townhall on August 5th at 5:30 CT We’ll be ready—and so will you.
By Elliott Vaughn April 3, 2025
4.3.25 Market Reaction